If South African banks save on costs following a decision by the international banking authorities to ease global banking liquidity standards, will listed property funds benefit? The short answer is that nobody is speculating, but what of Basel 3 in general and its effect on African real estate.
In short local and global banks have been told by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to raise capital levels, as a buffer against losses and unexpected shocks to their business.
It has been expected that costs will increase especially for longer term products e.g. mortgage products, which would see individuals finding it more expensive to acquire homes. Banks would require larger deposits before providing mortgage loans, and coupled with the fact that the savings rate among individuals in South Africa has always been at low levels, would mean that fewer individuals would be able to afford properties. This would have an adverse impact on the property market, with lower demand for properties likely to cause further downward pressure on property prices and thence property funds in a market still trying to recover from the effects of the 2008 credit crunch.
So Basel 3 — the most stringent of regulations enacted on local and global banks since WW2 and which comes into effect this year — will have a huge effect on real estate funding for investors and developers moving into Africa, so says Standard Bank head of real estate for Africa Fergus Mackintosh in an interview with Business Day.
Mackintosh said his biggest concern is the effect the implementation of Basil 3 would have on debt-funding requirements, especially for investors and developers moving into Africa. “There are going to be huge changes in terms of funding requirements from the banks and the reality is that investors and developers would need to come up with a lot of their own equity and have good partners and deep pockets,” he said.
However, this week saw announcements that international banking authorities will ease global banking liquidity standards. Following the 2008-09 financial crisis, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision developed a “liquidity coverage ratio” to ensure banks had enough unencumbered, high-quality liquid assets to survive a 30-day stress scenario. However, the Basel committee this week endorsed a package of amendments to its requirements. The committee said the liquidity coverage ratio “will be introduced as planned on January 1 2015 but banks will be given up until January 2019 to meet all the standards”.
In short this means South African banks’ need for a liquidity facility is reduced. The knock on cost savings to banks is welcome. How this will affect property funds is up for much speculation. One point of discussion is an increased general confidence in the sector is expected. Investors feel more comfortable knowing the banks have less pressure placed on them by Basel 3.
Some analysts believe that aggressive regulation risked inhibiting economic growth and a consequent tightening of purse strings for property funds, as some banks raised concern that this could push up the cost of lending. So will relaxing of regulations see a drop in the cost of lending, property funds could benefit in this regard? Watch this space.