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Offshore Property Investment – Not for the Faint-hearted.

OFFSHORE-INVESTINGTiming is everything, and if it isn’t then learning from history is. Continuing to make the same offshore property investment bungles could be the result of a combination of emotional frustration, Afro-pessimism and a Moby Dick like obsession with the Rand.

In 1997 the South African government allowed its citizens to take R200 000 per capita per annum to invest offshore. One may argue that investors practically ran to the offshore hills from an outperformed JSE and evaporating Rand.  South African investors stood clutching their modest handful of Rands and looked up in wonder at a booming Wall Street. By 2001 the rand had fallen to R13.50 to the Dollar.

Who would believe that ten years later many countries would be on the verge of bankruptcy and that people would be grumbling about the “Strong Rand” and that the South African Equity market had outperformed most other markets over the same period?

offshore2

But those in this game for the long haul will remind us that when all seems lost, it’s time to role up the  sleeves and capitalise. Back in 2001 when fear gripped investors it was actually the right time to buy into SA equities. When the rand collapsed and afropessimism crept in, investors bought Dollars and Euros expensively and sold out of arguably undervalued markets and bought into markets trading at large premiums.

Looking back over ten years, comparisons have been made to a R100 investment in the JSE all-share index at the end of 2001 that would have been worth about R400 by the end of June this year, versus only around R94 if invested in the MSCI world index over the same period. The main US equity index, the S&P500, is today still roughly 10% below its peak in 2000 in rand terms.  Emotions have been the main driver of the investments.

Says Investec Asset Management director Jeremy Gardiner  to the Financial Mail August 2011, Many SA investors, having watched with horror over the past 10 years as the rand doubled in value and the JSE delivered enormous returns, are again considering switching at the wrong time — this time out of developed markets and into SA equities and the rand. “Yet again, this decision is made on the basis of emotional frustration rather than recognising that both SA equities and the rand are now relatively overvalued.”

But a steady hand is required here since the strong performance of the SA equity market seems set to continue.  Offshore investment in general equities may well have dried up recently, it seems the JSE’s R125bn listed property sector is becoming a hot commodity among overseas investors. Big institutions putting down their names include Principle Global Investors, Black Rock and State Street.

On the receiving end GrowthPoint properties, has seen its overseas shareholding jump from 3% to 11% a while back. Redefine – SA’s second-biggest listed property counter, with a market cap of R20.3bn – doubled its offshore shareholding from 4% to 8% in the same period. “Global investors are now taking note of the fact South African-listed property offers far more attractive returns – total returns of close to 30% last year – than other global real estate markets.” Says Growthpoint executive director Estienne de Klerk.

offshore

There is expectation of more overseas funds showing up locally over the next 12 months. Names bandied about include Hyprop Investments,  as well as what we’ve see materialise from the merger between Capital Property Fund and Pangbourne Properties, also whatever surfaces from the potential merger between Acucap Properties  and Sycom Property Fund and then there’s the  listing of Old Mutual’s R12bn property portfolio.

Macquarie First South Securities property analyst Leon Allison spoke to Finance Week recently and said that although returns over the next decade will be more subdued than has been the case over the past 10 years, current positive structural changes will make the sector more investor-friendly.

Bringing us back to offshore options. The rand’s ‘strength’ favours taking money offshore. But the logic for offshore investment goes beyond any potential weakening of the rand. There is much to be said for the need for South Africans to diversify their assets. But there are more South Africans who have in the past got their offshore investment timing wrong. 2001 was the prime example, when a historic devaluing of the rand alarmed investors into the arms of foreign markets. At the peak of the rush, the second quarter 2001, 88% of net unit trust inflows went into offshore funds.

Now according to Marius Fenwick, head of the financial services arm of accountants Mazars:  “Now is the opportune time to invest offshore as the strength of the rand makes offshore investment attractive. Instead, offshore diversification should be used to hedge future rand depreciation and diversify through access to large global companies.” So here we go again…

But we know already this isn’t all about the rand. The great Bismark said: “Some people learn from their mistakes, that’s good. But isn’t it better to learn from other people’s mistakes?” Aren’t the underperforming overseas markets just waiting for South African investors? Rand or no Rand variance?offshore-investing

What are the options? Who are the players in offshore property investment?

First of all there’s Growthpoint that bought up a Sydney listed subsidiary applying its winning formula in Australia. Then there’s Emira, which has just put R117m into Growthpoint Australia, in their case they claim the rand had zero to do with their investment move. Emira has a 6.4% stake in Growthpoint’s Australian presence.

International Property Solutions markets UK and Australian residential property to South African investors. CEO Scott Picken was quoted as saying that South Africans wait until the rand is collapsing, panic and throw their money into offshore apartments as it hits bottom, he says. “Most investors have lost money offshore in this decade.”

Financial correspondent Scott Picken writes that comparative data shows that South Africans would have made much more money over 10 years measured in sterling by buying an average house in Johannesburg in 1997 than buying one in London at the same time. Only time will tell if the shoe is now on the other foot.

Other off shore institutional investors include Capital Shopping Centres. British Capital, run through Barnard Jacobs Mellet and Stanlib which has offshore unit trusts. Investec Property Investments has unlisted funds buying property in Europe and the US. There is also Catalyst which has an unlisted fund of global listed property funds.  Redefine is working through its London-listed Redefine International. Resilient has New Europe Property Investments (Nepi), which mainly owns shopping centres in Romania. All top performers.

Other choices in property include these very few funds which have actually lost money. Nedgroup Global Cautious (down 8,5%); Sanlam Investment Management Global Best Ideas (down 2,3%) a long term performer though; the Absa International fund of funds (down 15,8%)

Whether it’s  a strong Rand or the need to diversify one’s portfolio, these may be the times that offshore property funds offer the South African investor a long term strategy again, last made available ten years ago. Whatever the case this isn’t the time to think with the knee-jerk of emotion or a political bias.

Kenyan Retail and Property Sectors are Alive and Buzzing


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Kenya’s property industry is seeing unprecedented growth. Retail and office space is in very high demand. Foreign investors and local business are seeking out and snapping up opportunities across the country especially in Nairobi. But there are challenges as well as rewards.

Players in the construction and property industries refer to last year as a year of equilibrium in demand and supply. Though there was a reported slowing down toward the end of last year in anticipation of the elections. Looking back to 2007/2008 elections where there was violence, foreign capital stayed away and is eyeing the situation this time around with caution.

Those watching the property/development sector are doing so with interest in the extraordinary amount of international companies moving into the country. This naturally results in a greater demand for buildings.

A saying has emerged: “everyone in Kenya has become a real estate expert.” So looking for skilled advice is a little more challenging. This is where Actis owned Mentor Management comes in. In an interview with HowWeMadeItInAfrica, James Hoddell, chief executive explained that to his mind there are very few competitors in this market, at least those who do the full development and project management. “We are experiencing a real estate boom that is set to continue for years.” People are realising that you can’t just build whatever you feel like and sell or rent it.

Nairobi Business Park

Nairobi Business Park

Mentor Management has two notable developments currently on the table. One is the Garden City development. Upon completion it will be the largest mall in East Africa. It includes residential units, a public auditorium, a hotel and offices.  The other is Nairobi Business Park, which has a substantial waiting list. Hoddell is at pains to point out that projects like these are bringing in much needed foreign capital.

Foreign retailers in particular are sitting up and taking notice. Last year Mentor signed the first unit for Massmart in Kenya that will employ several hundred people. They are currently touring South Africa and Dubai to meet retailers winning them over to Kenya. Retail is a big growth area in Kenya.

It’s clear that the expanding population coupled with the growing economy is driving this property boom. If there weren’t tenants for these buildings, no one would be building them. Hoddell points out that for 20 years there was inadequate availability of property, there was very little development and the economy had stalled. But now, there is a renewed impetus in re-starting the economy. There is growth in Indian and Chinese investment as well as other international money, like the Actis fund.

“This is a relatively cost effective market to operate in. It is a cheap country to build in; it has a developed construction industry with developed sets of consultants and a functioning real estate market, which a lot of African countries don’t have.” Says James Hoddell.

One challenge faced by developers is the acquisition of land is becoming punitively expensive. The expectation of owners some may argue is unrealistically high.  It gets to a point where profitability is reduced such that it is not worth developing. This despite the rise of rentals.  Regardless the property and retail sectors in Kenya are alive with the sound of investment.
[Main Source HowWeMadeItInAfrica]

African Growth: Competitive Investment and at What Price?

Courtesy - The Economist

Courtesy – The Economist

Africa for so long a collective of querulous bankruptcies and killing fields has seen its coffers increasing and democratic advances reaping peace and prosperity.  The International Monetary Fund predicts sub-Saharan Africa growing at 5.4 per cent this year compared to 1.4 per cent for developed economies.

Africa’s is home to some of the world’s fastest growing economies and rapidly rising disposable incomes. A decade of relative political stability has also helped the case for African investment.

New investors come expecting bargains because the continent is still seen as poor. However investors looking to buy into future growth are now paying a premium due to sellers savvy to opportunities being fewer and further between.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s attractiveness as an investment destination has risen to fifth place in 2012 from seventh in 2011, according to a survey by the Emerging Markets Private Equity Association. Opportunities traditionally existed in mining but speakers at Reuters Africa Investment Summit in September have pointed to consumer and banking services sectors as the next big thing.

Africa’s largest telecoms operator MTN is a perfect example of a company that paid what was considered a weighty price at the time, for the right to commence operations in Nigeria 11 years ago. It paid $285 million for a mobile license, now it has over 41 million subscribers and banked revenues of 34.9 billion rand ($4.47 billion) in 2011.

Actis, a private equity firm in emerging markets, said it was recently outbid in a North African deal by a trade buyer that offered 12 times EBITDA (Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and…). Valuations on the continent are, however, cheap compared with price demands in bigger emerging economies in Asia. Speaking to Reuters, John van Wyk, the firm’s co-head for the region said: “Valuations, depending on the sector, can be quite high but … compare that to the 16 times EBITDA multiple you are being asked for in India or China, that’s kind of stratospheric stuff.” “We are quite bullish about the continent but Africa doesn’t come without its challenges,” van Wyk said.

It seems that it is not unusual for new investors on the continent to make the mistake of coming with preconceived ideas of where valuations should be.

The world’s biggest retailer Wal-Mart bought a majority stake in South Africa’s Massmart for $2.4 billion in 2011, a 19 per cent premium to the 30-day volume weighted average price. With that has come a great deal of political and legal manoeuvring that remains to be finalised.

Even where companies are willing to pay a premium for a good target, companies of the right size are hard to come by. Every big African brewer, for example, has been nailed down, according to SABMiller’s head for the region, Mark Bowman. “No one is getting anything for a reasonable price any more; you are paying for a future opportunity a significant premium. Anything that would become available would be aggressively priced and one would have to take a view if it’s worth it,” he told Reuters. Diageo, consumer goods companies with a portfolio of world-famous drinks brands, dug up a heavy $225 million for an Ethiopian state brewery last year, months after Heineken paid $163 million for two other beer makers in that country.

Emerging Capital Partners is opening an office in Nairobi, its seventh office on the continent, to grab east African opportunities. Alex-Handrah Aime, a director of the Africa-focused ECapitalP: believes that one way of bridging the valuation gap is for buyers to start with a convertible bond, instead of taking up equity at the onset. Private equity firms need to avoid auctions to keep a lid on valuations, she told Reuters. “It’s a competitive process. If you end up in an auction situation … the person who pays the most is going to win. That’s not necessarily the valuation that is going to be most sensible.”

Some investors have turned their backs on what they see as inflated prices. South Africa’s second-largest banking group First Rand dropped its bid for Nigeria’s Sterling Bank last year after the two disagreed on price.

Interestingly Middle East investors, though slow to join the fray, are competing for investment opportunities on the continent. Not short of oily billions and short of investment opportunities in the developed world, Africa is looking attractive.

However challenges have been quickly recognised. One is the relatively small size of potential deals. “The Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds are very interested in Africa, the challenge that they face is the increment at which they need to invest is way too large for the continent at the moment,” Diana Layfield, Africa chief executive at Britain’s Standard Chartered Plc. told Reuters in an interview on the side-lines of the World Economic Forum on Africa.

“Definitely there will be more (investment) coming to Africa,” Saudi Arabian Minister for Agriculture Farad Balghunaim told Reuters. “With the clear vision that is building up in African leadership now, there will be more and more investors from Saudi Arabia,” he said in Addis Ababa.

However accessing growth is not a given. There is a lack of liquidity in public capital markets. For private equity bankers, there is often a shortage of deals that can meet their mandate when it comes to size. For example, emerging markets private equity firm is reportedly aiming for individual deals of $50 million or more in Africa, meaning it has to focus on the continent’s biggest economies – South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria – to find deals.

Dubai’s Abraaj Capital is in the process of acquiring UK-based private equity firm Aureos Capital, which invests in small and medium-sized businesses in Africa, Latin America and Asia. “We tend to have a sweet spot at around $10 million, but we have investments as low as $2 million and going up to about $35 million,” Davinder Sikand, Aureos’ regional managing partner for Africa told Reuters.

“Our focus has been to build regional champions. So we’ll take positions in businesses that can demonstrate management vision and build (them) out, recognising that each of our markets other than Nigeria and South Africa are fairly small markets, and you need to build that scale.”

Due to the constraints in their home markets, Middle East investors are familiar with Africa’s challenges, such as the poor infrastructure, the shortage of a highly trained workforce and the lack of liquidity in capital markets.

Frederic Sicre, a partner at Abraaj Capital told Reuters: “Behind us are 200 of the wealthiest merchant families, royal families from the Middle East, and sovereign wealth funds from the Middle East. We can pull them in to looking at the infrastructure development space, or the big utility development space, into looking at the opportunities here.”

Clearly the continent has become a far more competitive place than it used to be. Despite many target deals being on the small side for the bigger players, the expected returns are considered reward enough in the long term. Africa, -keep doing what you’re doing and you’ll keep getting what you’re getting. If democratisation continues, peace will abound and prosperity should follow the necessary hard work buoyed by investment.

South Africa is Part of Africa, but will it Take Part in Africa?

The World Bank has likened the doubling of African manufacturing output over the last decade to China’s position thirty years ago. Emerging Markets Investment firm Actis’ real estate director Louis Deppe believes that South African investors who ignore the potential in African markets do so at their own peril.

Ivor Ichikowitz, founder of Paramount Group, a privately owned defence and aerospace company, believes South Africans have looked to Asia and the West for the best ideas and viewed them as their natural competitors, as opposed to our African neighbours.

Louis Deppe of Actis

Louis Deppe told Moneyweb at an Africa Property Investment Summit in Sandton. “You have no choice not to care about Africa. It’s on your doorstep. Some significant economies are going to overtake South Africa in a very short space of time. They’re growing faster and have far more potential to grow.”

An example Deppe probably has in mind would be Ethiopia, their economy is expanding at 7.5% annually and that’s not just traditional industries like mining and agriculture, it’s also manufacturing. An example on the periphery of Addis Ababa is Chinese shoe maker Huajian, which has built a factory employing around 500 workers.

An economist at the World Bank who recently wrote a report on light manufacturing in Africa cites this as an example of how Africa could overtake Asia to potentially become the world’s next manufacturing hub.  Low labour costs, the availability of natural resources, and preferential access (duty-free and quota-free access) to the US and EU markets are all some of the advantages of operating in Africa.

It is predicted that Nigeria, with a growth rate of 7% should overtake South Africa by 2015. Louis Deppe warns that up until now, South Africa, being, arguably, the most democratic and stable country on the continent, has been able to attract foreign direct investment (FDI), often getting the lion’s share compared to other African countries. Once other countries also start fulfilling some basic requirements, this will no longer be the case.

South Africa used to be the gateway to the rest of Africa. If foreign investors wanted to set up and go into Africa, the FDI would come to SA first, before moving up north. This is no longer happening and foreign investors are now moving directly into Africa from China, Europe and the United States.

Nairobi – an “African Tech Hub”

By 2035, the continent’s work force will be greater than any individual state on earth.  Nigeria and Ethiopia will add over 30 million workers by 2020, whereas South Africa is looking at adding 2 million.

However, it’s not just manufacturing that Africa is excelling in and challenging South Africa. The Economist recently (August 2012) named Nairobi an “African tech hub” because of the hundreds of start-ups that have sprung up in the last few years. Kenya’s exports of technology related services have risen from $16m in 2002 to $360m in 2010. It is also a world leader in the adoption of mobile payments technology – and is far ahead of China and India.

According to Ivor Ichikowitz, within a few years Kenya could soon emerge as a world leader in mobile payments and export the technology to countries across the world.

He also refers to the African film industry. The Nigerian movie industry, which has overtaken South Africa’s to become the strongest on the continent worth £500m and producing more films than Hollywood every year. The films may not be international blockbusters, but they have huge appeal across Nigeria and Africa, and prove that Africans have the creativity to compete in non-traditional industries.

Nigerian Movie Industry Worth R6Billion in 2011

Clearly we need to be at least aware of what our neighbours are doing if our market is shrinking or stagnating and the world around us is getting bigger, we risk becoming less relevant in the grand scheme of things. Alas it seems the South African economy is sliding backwards while the rest of the continent is in first gear. Most African markets that Louis Deppe’s Actis group invests in are experiencing 7% GDP growth. “Despite claims of corruption, a lot of that money still filters down into the economy, there’s a lot of economic drive and growth.” he said. He added that on the development side, Actis was getting returns of between 13% and 14%.

But Ivor Ichikowitz has a positive spin on this: “it’s a positive opportunity for us to export our products and knowledge and generally expand trade with other African nations, which in turn will generate jobs for the youth of our country.”

South Africa has some great assets – its infrastructure, mature private sector, well developed services sector, stock exchange – that give us the opportunity to provide a range of goods and services to help grow our own economy, but we can work harder to maximise these advantages.

IVOR ICHIKOWITZ

Ichikowitz says that countries like Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria are rushing forward and emerging as serious competitors for destinations of foreign capital.

This is pressuring our government and business leaders to look more closely at their policies and approach to business. The harsh reality is that if South Africa is to retain its position as the leading economy on the continent it can’t for a minute ‘rest on its laurels’.

Ichikowitz doesn’t see South Africa as being in competition with the rest of Africa, but rather in a position to learn from and impart learning to neighbouring states, which is why it is essential that we share technologies and collaborate to build strong regional industries that bolster inter-Africa trade.

Deppe looks more into the nitty-gritty glancing back to what he refers to as a watershed year for property investments in South Africa, 2010, after the World Cup. “We had all these infrastructural projects, the economy had withstood the 2008 global recession. Then suddenly: what’s next in SA? There’s not much left in South Africa, we are a saturated market.” Deppe said by way of illustration that vacancy rates had increased in many shopping centres across the country. As a result, investors’ returns at 7% or 8%, which were not great to begin with, are shrinking and are likely to be impacted further. He said with GDP growth in South Africa being below 3%

New South African Bank Notes

“you’re not even going to get out of the starting blocks. You’re actually going backwards in real terms.”

The troubling dynamic among South Africa investors is their reluctance to invest in Africa stems from an unfounded conservatism. “With the South African base not as strong as it was, it’s forcing people into a mind-set to look abroad. I don’t think they have a choice.” Deppe said.

Taking Africa Seriously

Whether it’s private equity firm Actis’ movements in Africa, surprising news about Ugandan oil reserves or South Africa’s PPC cement eyeing Ethiopia, it’s all part of the growing trend to take Africa more seriously.

Actis continues to dig deep and wins an award too.

Actis

Emerging markets private equity firm Actis is looking to invest around $300 million annually in Africa. The firm aims for individual investments of $50 million or more, meaning it focuses on Africa’s biggest economies – South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria for example – where there are more opportunities for bigger deals.

Actis was formed in July 2004, as a spinoff from CDC Group plc (formerly the Commonwealth Development Corporation), an organization established by the UK Government in 1948 to invest in developing economies in Africa, Asia, and the Caribbean. The Actis management team acquired majority ownership of CDC’s emerging markets investment platform.

According to Wikipedia on 1 May 2012 the Secretary of State for International Development, Andrew Mitchell, announced that the state’s remaining 40% stake had been sold to the Actis management for an initial £8m. The deal also included a share of future profits that could be worth over £62m to the UK Government.

Actis Spokesman John Van Wyk a veteran South African private equity banker told Reuters recently “I tell our investors that I think Africa is still probably the best-kept secret because we continue to make superior returns,”

Actis, which has about $1.5 billion deployed in Africa, last year led a $434 million buy-out of South African firm Tracker, which makes vehicle tracking equipment.

A feather in Actis’ cap is that they have won ‘Best Developer in Africa’ in Euromoney’s 8th global real estate survey – official recognition of the private equity firm’s track record in investing in the real estate sector on the continent. Actis launched their first real estate fund in 2006 and focus ‘institutional quality retail and office developments in high growth markets.

Despite its challenges, the real estate sector is growing in popularity for PE funds – Kenyan Britam (recently rebranded from Britak) is planning to include the sector in their targets for their first PE fund.

Ugandan Oil Deposits

Ugandan Oil Deposits 40% greater than expected.

An additional 1bn barrels of oil has been discovered during exploration on Uganda’s oil fields, pushing the figures of commercially viable deposits to at least 3.5bn barrels and pushing Uganda up from 43rd place to 32nd place among the world’s oil producers, just ahead of the UKs North Sea Oil.

Ernest Rubondo, the commissioner for petroleum exploration and production at the ministry of energy and mineral resources, made the announcement in September. The Ugandan Daily Monitor quotes him as saying: “From about two or three wells we have increased our oil barrels to 3.5bn,” Rubondo said. He further disclosed that out of 77 wells drilled so far, 70 have been proven to contain oil and gas.

The Albertine Graben in which oil has been discovered in Uganda is located in the western part of the country, mainly in Masindi, Kibale and Hoima districts.  Unfortunately, according to the energy ministry, production has been hampered by squabbling over contracts and taxes. Infrastructural inadequacies are not helping either.

Enter corruption: three ministers are facing allegations of accepting bribes. The government has not been forthcoming with information about these irregularities and this has just fuelled suspicions of high level corruption.

British explorer Tullow Oil, want commercial exploitation to start immediately, saying it is unreasonable for it to be expected that they hold their capital idle. Howwemadeitinafrica.com confirms reports that Block 1, found on the northern tip of Lake Albert, is operated by a local unit of France’s Total SA, while Block 2 is operated by Tullow Oil. Total entered Uganda’s oil industry early this year after it signed onto a joint venture with China’s CNOOC and took up a third each of Tullow Oil’s exploration assets in the country worth $2.9bn.

The Ugandan government says only about 40% of the Albertine Graben has been explored to date and has stated it will be demanding tougher terms in new oil deals. This tale is far from over.

South Africa’s PPC Cement and the IDC acquire 47% of Ethiopia’s giant Habesha Cement.

PPC cement

Acquiring a 47% share in Habesha Cement Share Company (HCSCo) of Ethiopia, South Africa’s Pretoria Portland Cement Company (PPC), joined hands with South Africa’s Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) in a deal worth US$21million. PPC’s $12m cash injection secured 27% equity in HCSCo, whereas IDC’s $9m secured a 20% equity stake.

PPC is not the only cement company capitalising on the fast growing cement consumption in the region. Dangote Cement of Nigeria and Athi River Mining of Kenya are also competing for market share, reminding South African business that it’s a new kid on the block. PPC’s stated intention is to grow revenue earned outside of South Africa to 50% during the next few years.

According to Imara Africa Securities Team, in addition to the injection from the IDC and PPC, the company secured $86m debt financing from the Development Bank of Ethiopia. The first phase of HCSCo’s plan is a $130m state of the art cement plant with an annual capacity of 1.4m tonnes per annum (mtpa) specifically for the Ethiopian market. The plant’s future development plan includes an option to double the capacity to 2.8 mtpa. The plant, which is currently in the early stages of construction, is located 35km north-west of Addis Ababa. Cement production is planned to commence during the first half of 2014.

Ethiopia

During the initial construction phases, PPC will assist HCSCo by providing operational and technical expertise and with the training of plant personnel at its operations at the PPC Academy in South Africa.

At 85 million, Ethiopia is the second largest country in Africa by population. However the per capita GDP is $354. Worth watching though is that the country’s economic growth rate was at 8.8% in 2011. Ethiopia’s government has launched a 5-year (2010/15), Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), which is geared towards fostering broad-based development. The scheme seeks to double the GDP and the agricultural production and to increase electricity coverage from 41% to 100% and access to safe water from 68.5% to 98.5%. Since 2003, the government has embarked on a housing reform programme – a modest 11,000 homes have been completed to date providing individual ownership of affordable quality housing. The future market in Ethiopia for construction and thence cement is substantial.
{Sources: Howwemadeitinafrica.com/ Imara Africa Securities Team/ Businessmonitor.com}

Three examples of where Africa is being taken very seriously is a just the tip of the ice berg. There’s more where that came from so watch this space.

Africa is the Next Big thing

Investment into Africa as the next big thing seems to be all but established. But investment into property developments has been stop start, with some notable exceptions. Experts on the ground are expecting investment to pick up as Africa’s hunger for shopping malls and commercial office space continues to grow.

Many retailers that have set up operations in Africa have expressed that their expansion on the continent is being held back by the lack of suitable shopping malls. This begs the question that if there is such a strong demand for modern retail locations, why aren’t we seeing new malls being developed at a more rapid pace?

There are some worthy exceptions: South Africa’s Manto Investment Group is to construct a US$30 million shopping centre in Ndola, Zambia. Construction work is expected to commence after feasibility studies have been completed.

West property, Augur Investments and McCormick Property Development, are planning the building of a 68, 000sqm shopping mall in Zimbabwe located in Harare’s up market Borrowdale suburb. According to The Zimbabwean online (UK), this represents the biggest shopping mall in Africa, outside South Africa.

The Financial Mail reports that Resilient Property Income Fund Ltd plans to spend more than 1 billion rand building 10 shopping malls in Nigeria.  The malls, 10,000 square meters and 15,000 square meters in size, will be built over the next three years in the capital, Abuja, and the city of Lagos respectively, the main commercial hubs. Shoprite, Africa’s largest food retailer, will be the major tenant. Bloomberg reports that Standard Bank Group Ltd, Africa’s biggest lender, and construction company Group Five Ltd. (GRF) are also partners in the deal.

Recently, emerging markets private equity firm Actis has been at the forefront of a number of Africa’s more high-profile property developments. The company is behind Nigeria’s arguably first modern shopping malls and has recently announced that it will invest in East Africa’s largest retail mall to be situated in Nairobi.

How we made it in Africa asked Kevin Teeroovengadum, a director for real estate at Actis why we aren’t seeing new malls being developed at a more rapid pace. Teeroovengadum believes there hasn’t been significant enough interest from international property developers to invest in sub-Saharan Africa. South African developers were focused on the local market due to the football World Cup, while European firms were concentrating on Europe and the Middle East. However, the recession in Europe has prompted some European real estate companies to look at Africa for growth opportunities. Post-2010 many South African property players have also turned their attention to the rest of the continent.

Something that players in the industry point out is that the development of shopping malls is time consuming. This referring to the red tape involved with dealing with multiple countries, different regulations and laws and political interference.

Teeroovengadum said. “But if I look at today, and compare it with five years ago, there are far more players involved in the real estate sector. We can really see that happening on the ground. I think if we fast-forward two or three years from now, you are going to see more shopping centres being built in places like Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya – the big economies. You are going to see a fast-tracking of property development happening in Africa.”

Africa south of the Sahara, not including South Africa, has a little in the way of  the modern shopping mall experience. Most shoppers still have to frequent a variety of places for their shopping requirements.

However, there appears to be an inclination towards convenience where a variety of products can be found in one location. “Clearly we are seeing in all the markets where we have invested a type of evolution of people moving from informal to formal shopping centres.” Says Teeroovengadum.

One of the challenges continues to be access to funds for property developments in much of sub-Saharan Africa. With the exception of many of South African developments that are funded with up to 100% debt, the rest of the continent developers often need to put down around 50% in cash.  Currently there are few banks that are willing to lend for 10 to 15 years. However it is reported that this is improving, as markets become stronger, local banks become stronger, and changes are occurring in markets like Ghana, Zambia and Nigeria in this regard.

Although Africa is drawing the attention of increasingly greater numbers of international investors, interest in the property sector remains relatively passive.  On a macro level, more investors are looking to invest in Africa.  Barely a week goes by that one doesn’t see an article about Africa, and its growth opportunities and increased foreign direct investment.

However when it comes to property it is a different situation says Teeroovengadum. He refers to the number of investors who made poor returns over the last decade due to the asset bubbles in the US, Europe and Middle East. They are very hesitant about investing more into property. Those who are willing are typically development finance institutions, those institutions that have long-term money for Africa. There are a couple of international pension funds who are looking at investing in Africa, but there are very few these days.

When the question was posed to Actis directors about how they decide which African countries to invest, in they replied that at a basic level they look for a ‘strong economy’ like Nigeria, Ghana Kenya, Uganda and Zambia. This indicates that these countries have good fundamentals, a large population, GDP growth and increasing GDP per capita etc. A Strong legal system was also referred to.

Africa wants shopping malls and companies like Resilient and Actis are gearing up to deliver.

Africa is not an island and is subject to the ebbs and flows of the world economy and its whims and fancies. Nevertheless for whatever reasons Africa is emerging as the next big thing in world investment and economic growth. But is the time right while the world is reeling from financial crisis upon financial crisis. Time will tell if those who were brave enough were foolish or wise.